The holiday season is not only a time for festivities but also a period when the stock market exhibits a unique phenomenon known as the Santa Claus Rally. In this article, we'll delve deep into the Santa Claus Rally, examining its history, significance, and strategies for investors. We'll also explore its impact on various US stock indices and major international stock indices. The Santa Claus...
Introduction to Seasonal Trends in the Stock MarketThe stock market is a dynamic and constantly changing landscape, subject to a variety of influences that can quickly send waves of change through its financial waters. Amidst this complexity, a powerful yet often overlooked phenomenon emerges year after year: monthly stock market seasonality trends. Stock seasonality is the understanding that...
The three things I would do differently in my trading and if I went back and started again, is that I would start with Amibroker earlier. It makes backtesting so much easier, more liable, so much less bugs and start trading more different markets. It's a game changer. If you trade Australia and the US, for your return risk profile, it makes a huge difference. Trading more markets instead of more...
I'm very reluctant to take leverage now. This index strategy in leverage of factor three was usual because you leverage up very high, you go down, leverage up very high, you go down. Now my leverage factor on the long side is max 1.3. and 1.4. It's like it's a lot of unexpected downside risk. Sometimes, especially as if you have a momentum and trend following strategy and you like to add up, for...
The advice that I have for traders that are looking to trade institutional money is… First, be aware that institutional money trades differently than we do. Most of the strategies we trade, they cannot trade because the ticket size is too big. Like our trend following system, which works very well because we can trade a lot of small cap stocks, it doesn't work for the big...
Academic literature is important for trading because I studied financial economics and a Master of Science at Imperial College. It's called Risk Management and Financial Engineering. It was basically like a quantitative finance course, and I like to have very robust strategies. There are a lot of strategies in which there's so much research, trend following, momentum, seasonal strategies, even...
When developing new strategies, I get ideas from browsing around. I follow some experts and listen to Top Traders Unplugged, which are all high-quality institutional hedge fund managers and there's so much insight listening to them. There's also a guy who manages his own portfolio and mentioned Amibroker, he said, "Amibroker has a really good tool to use for stock and hours. Thus, I'm on the...
The learnings that I've had by trading for a living is having confidence in the systems. Last year, the return is not positive, this goes for a lot of trend following momentum traders. For one and a half years I'm in a drawdown and that takes a lot of confidence, emotional pain, especially when this is your main income, and trading is my main income. I have some other incomes, but not generating...
First contact was stock trading I got when I was 16 at an internship at a small insurance guy. He did a lot of technical analysis and a lot of chart reading and stuff. At that point I really liked it, but I lost touch with that. Then through my studies I did an internship at Institutional Asset Management Division from a private bank in Germany, Berenberg Bank. They did everything...
My favorite tool that I've learned since being in EST is Amibroker. I also like brute force optimization because it reminds me of what I did for the index strategies. I basically built the environment in Excel and VBA, which did a rolling forward brute force optimization like you have those windows every week. That's a weakness of Amibroker for the brute, for the walking forward. It also takes...
Introduction to The On-balance Volume IndicatorJoseph Granville, a luminary in technical analysis, revolutionized the field by introducing the groundbreaking On-Balance Volume indicator (OBV) in the early 1960s. Granville's quest was to develop a tool transcending traditional price and volume data, aiming to measure trading volume's significance in predicting price movements. This led to the...
The capital market is known for its dynamics and volatility. There are various factors that can influence the performance of the stock market and even more the crypto market. One of these factors is seasonality. Seasonality is a term that encompasses reoccurring time-related price behavior effects. These effects can pertain to individual calendar months or specific holidays. The crucial aspect...