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Survivorship bias is the tendency to focus only on successful examples while ignoring those that failed. This logical error leads investors to overestimate mutual fund performance, hedge fund indexes, and stock portfolios by ignoring unsuccessful funds and companies—a...
Think about how easier it is to judge a situation when you’re not the one in it. Consider how quickly we notice mistakes in others, whether it’s a friend making a bad financial decision, a colleague mishandling a project, or a trader holding onto a losing stock for...
Markets may seem chaotic, but price movements often follow natural cycles. The Hurst Cycle, named after American engineer J.M. Hurst, provides a framework for understanding stock market cycles and improving trade timing. By analyzing cyclic theory, traders can...
The percentage of stocks trading above a moving average is a market breadth indicator that measures how many stocks in an index or market are trading above a specific moving average level. Market analysts and investors use this metric to assess the overall strength or...
Paralysis by analysis occurs when overthinking leads to inaction. A trader sits surrounded by six monitors, each crowded with charts, indicators, and news feeds. They've spent three hours analyzing a potential trade, checking every timeframe, reading dozens of...
Choice-supportive bias is the tendency to justify past strategic decisions retroactively by exaggerating their benefits and downplaying their flaws. This might look like someone buying an overpriced car and later convincing themselves it was a “great deal” despite...
Overconfidence bias is the tendency for individuals to overestimate their knowledge, skills, or control over outcomes. According to research, overconfidence is usually driven by other cognitive biases, such as self-attribution bias, optimism bias, and the illusion of...
Outcome bias happens when traders judge the quality of a decision based solely on the result, not the process behind it. Imagine driving home drunk and arriving safely. Was it a good trade? Of course not. The outcome was positive, but the decision-making process was...
There are many great trading books but finding the one you need can be difficult. We have reviewed many outstanding books, grouped by trading system topic to help you find what you need.
Zero-risk bias is the human tendency to prefer absolute certainty, even when it’s not the most rational choice. These cognitive biases stem from an adaptive tendency to minimize unnecessary risks, even at the expense of long-term rewards—a concept frequently explored...